万方数据资源系统

安全与环境学报
JOURNAL OF SAFETY AND ENVIRONMENT
2010 Vol.10 No.1 P.127-131

数字化期刊

基于生态足迹的可持续发展测度改进模型

马春  张晓春  张丽  鞠美庭  李洪远  莫训强 

摘 要:利用生态足迹分析法对天津市1987-2006年的生态足迹和生态承载力进行时间序列的测度以及可持续发展的定量测算.针对现有模型计算复杂,数据需求量大等不足,通过降维对基于生态足迹法的可持续发展测度模型进行改进,通过数学手段去除次要因素,提炼和突出生态赤字或盈余的主要影响因素,简化模型,以解决可持续发展测度过程中收集数据的困难.运用1987-1996年天津市生态足迹的测算结果建立改进的模型,并应用1997-2006年的数据进行模型验证,所得结果理想.原模型计算过程复杂,涉及3组模型,10组元数据,有2组衍生数据;新模型较为简单,涉及1~2组元数据,无需衍生数据.
关键词:生态学;生态赤字;可持续发展;数学模型;天津市
分类号:F062.2 文献标识码:A

文章编号:1009-6094(2010)01-0127-05

Modified sustainable development model of Tianjin municipality based on the eco-footprint method

MA Chun(College of Environmental Science and Engineering,Nankai University,Tianjin 300071,China)  ZHANG Xiao-chun(Tianjin Research Institute of Water Transport Engineering,Ministry of Transport P.R.C.,Tianjin 300456,China)  ZHANG Li(College of Environmental Science and Engineering,Nankai University,Tianjin 300071,China)  JU Mei-ting(College of Environmental Science and Engineering,Nankai University,Tianjin 300071,China)  LI Hong-yuan(College of Environmental Science and Engineering,Nankai University,Tianjin 300071,China)  MO Xun-qiang(College of Environmental Science and Engineering,Nankai University,Tianjin 300071,China) 

AbstractThis paper presents our investigation and measurement of the eco-footprint in time sequence in hoping to trace the degree of sustainable development of Tianjin Municipality from 1987 to 2006 with our ecological model. We have improved the existing ecological footprint model by means of reducing the dimensions and mathematically removing secondary factors, thus refining and highlighting the main influential factors of eco-deficits or eco-surplus. Based on the above study, our modified model has been made much more easy to evaluate the sustainable development situation with typical data and relatively simple calculation procedure with the data collected from 1987 to 1996. Two indexes of per-capita water-sharing area and per-capita land area for energy have been selected for the main variables of the new model. Regression model and bivariate regression model are built by the stepwise method. Furthermore, model simulation has been conducted by using the data between the years from 1997 to 2006. The results of the trial use of our modified model show that: (1) Through the statistical analysis, both the regression model and bivariate regression model are acceptable, but there really exists a need to choose the actual situation when it comes to the application of the model. (2) Through the variability analysis and the correlation analysis, the actual situation of application is consistent with the two main indexes chosen by the process of modeling, for the energy plays a pivotal role for sustainable development, and per-capita sharing water area is of great importance for Tianjin, which is rich in water and wetland resources. (3) Two new models based on the two principal factors measure the degree of sustainable development. Therefore, mathematical model and dimensionality reduction model prove to be effective tools for simplifying the complicated data and reflecting the actual situation. (4) While traditional eco-footprint model is much more complicated in calculating process which refers to the three groups of models and ten groups of data, the new models may refer to no more than two groups of data and much more easy calculating process.
Keywords:ecology;ecological deficit;sustainable development;model;Tianjin

基金项目:国家自然科学基金项目(70873065);国家社科基金重大项目(07&ZD018)
作者简介:马春,博士研究生,从事环境规划与管理的研究;
作者简介:张晓春(通信作者),工程师,从事环境数学模型研究,x.c.zhang@163.com.
作者单位:马春(南开大学环境科学与工程学院,天津,300071) 
     张晓春(交通部天津水运工程科学研究院,天津,300456) 
     张丽(南开大学环境科学与工程学院,天津,300071) 
     鞠美庭(南开大学环境科学与工程学院,天津,300071) 
     李洪远(南开大学环境科学与工程学院,天津,300071) 
     莫训强(南开大学环境科学与工程学院,天津,300071) 

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收稿日期:2009年5月18日

出版日期:2010年2月25日